Publications
Below is a full list of all GCRI publications. See also GCRI research publications and commentary publications. For publications on specific topics, please see our topics pages.
Baum, Seth D., 2024. Climate change, uncertainty, and global catastrophic risk. Futures, vol. 162 (September), article 103432, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103432.
Baum, Seth D. Assessing the risk of takeover catastrophe from large language models. Risk Analysis, forthcoming, DOI:10.1111/risa.14353.
Baum, Seth D. and Andrea Owe. On the intrinsic value of diversity. Inquiry, forthcoming, DOI 10.1080/0020174X.2024.2367247.
Baum, Seth D. Manipulating aggregate societal values to bias AI social choice ethics. AI and Ethics, forthcoming, DOI 10.1007/s43681-024-00495-6.
Ackerman, Gary, Brandon Behlendorf, Seth Baum, Hayley Peterson, Anna Wetzel, and John Halstead, 2024. The origin and implications of the COVID-19 pandemic: An expert survey. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Technical Report 24-1.
Sepasspour, Rumtin, 2023. All-hazards policy for global catastrophic risk. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Technical Report 23-1.
Vilhelmsson, Andreas and Seth D. Baum, 2023. Public health and nuclear winter: Addressing a catastrophic threat. Journal of Public Health Policy, vol. 44, no. 3 (September), pages 360-369, DOI 10.1057/s41271-023-00416-7.
Baum, Seth D., 2023. Even with electric vehicles, an expanded Turnpike Extension would be bad for the environment. The Jersey Journal, 9 January.
Baum, Seth D., 2022. New York’s housing plans must address affordability-& climate change. City Limits, 29 December.
Baum, Seth D., 2023. Assessing natural global catastrophic risks. Natural Hazards, vol. 115, no. 3 (February), pages 2699-2719, DOI 10.1007/s11069-022-05660-w.
Baum, Seth D., 2022. Doing better on climate change. Effective Altruism Forum, 7 October.
Owe, Andrea, Seth D. Baum, and Mark Coeckelbergh, 2022. Nonhuman value: A survey of the intrinsic valuation of natural and artificial nonhuman entities. Science and Engineering Ethics, vol 28, no. 5, article 38. DOI 10.1007/s11948-022-00388-z.
Owe, Andrea, 2022. Space expansion must support sustainability - On Earth and in space. RUSI Commentary, 15 June.
Baum, Seth D., 2022. Book review: The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. Risk Analysis, vol. 42, issue 9 (September), pages 2122-2124, DOI 10.1111/risa.13954.
Baum, Seth D. and Vanessa M. Adams, 2022. Pandemic refuges: Lessons from two years of COVID-19. Risk Analysis, vol. 43, no. 5 (May), pages 875-883, DOI 10.1111/risa.13953.
Baum, Seth D., 2022. Early reflections and resources on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Effective Altruism Forum, 18 March.
Baum, Seth D., 2022. How to evaluate the risk of nuclear war. BBC Future, 10 March.
Owe, Andrea, 2023. Greening the universe: The case for ecocentric space expansion. In James S. J. Schwartz, Linda Billings, and Erika Nesvold (Editors), Reclaiming Space: Progressive and Multicultural Visions of Space Exploration. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pages 325-336, DOI 10.1093/oso/9780197604793.003.0027.
Baum, Seth D. and Andrea Owe, 2023. From AI for people to AI for the world and the universe. AI & Society, vol. 38, no. 2 (April), pages 679-680, DOI 10.1007/s00146-022-01402-5.
Owe, Andrea and Seth D. Baum, 2021. The ethics of sustainability for artificial intelligence. In Philipp Wicke, Marta Ziosi, João Miguel Cunha, and Angelo Trotta (Editors), Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on AI for People: Towards Sustainable AI (CAIP 2021), Bologna, pages 1-17, DOI 10.4108/eai.20-11-2021.2314105.
Baum, Seth D. and Andrea Owe, 2023. Artificial intelligence needs environmental ethics. Ethics, Policy, & Environment, vol. 26, no. 1, pages 139-143, DOI 10.1080/21550085.2022.2076538.
Baum, Seth D. and Jonas Schuett, 2021. The case for long-term corporate governance of AI. Effective Altruism Forum, 3 November.
Galaz, Victor, Miguel A. Centeno, Peter W. Callahan, Amar Causevic, Thayer Patterson, Irina Brass, Seth Baum, Darryl Farber, Joern Fischer, David Garcia, Timon McPhearson, Daniel Jimenez, Brian King, Paul Larcey, and Karen Levy, 2021. Artificial intelligence, systemic risks, and sustainability. Technology in Society, vol. 67 (November), article 101741, DOI 10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101741.
Cihon, Peter, Jonas Schuett, and Seth D. Baum, 2021. Corporate governance of artificial intelligence in the public interest. Information, vol. 12, article 275, DOI 10.3390/info12070275.
de Neufville, Robert and Seth D. Baum, 2021. Collective action on artificial intelligence: A primer and review. Technology in Society, vol. 66 (August), article 101649, DOI 10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101649.
Owe, Andrea and Seth D. Baum, 2021. Moral consideration of nonhumans in the ethics of artificial intelligence. AI & Ethics, vol. 1, no. 4 (November), pages 517-528, DOI 10.1007/s43681-021-00065-0.
Cihon, Peter, Moritz J. Kleinaltenkamp, Jonas Schuett, and Seth D. Baum, 2021. AI certification: Advancing ethical practice by reducing information asymmetries. IEEE Transactions on Technology and Society, vol. 2, issue 4 (December), pages 200-209, DOI 10.1109/TTS.2021.3077595.
Fitzgerald, McKenna, Aaron Boddy, and Seth D. Baum, 2020. 2020 survey of artificial general intelligence projects for ethics, risk, and policy. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Technical Report 20-1.
Baum, Seth D., 2021. Accounting for violent conflict risk in planetary defense decisions. Acta Astronautica, vol. 178 (January), pages 15-23, DOI 10.1016/j.actaastro.2020.08.028.
Baum, Seth D., 2020. Quantifying the probability of existential catastrophe: A reply to Beard et al. Futures, vol. 123 (October), article 102608, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102608.
Baum, Seth D., 2021. Artificial interdisciplinarity: Artificial intelligence for research on complex societal problems. Philosophy & Technology, vol. 34, no. S1 (November), pages 45-63, DOI 10.1007/s13347-020-00416-5.
Baum, Seth D., 2020. Deep learning and the sociology of human-level artificial intelligence – Book review: Artifictional Intelligence: Against Humanity’s Surrender to Computers. Metascience, vol. 29, no. 2 (July), pages 313-317, DOI 10.1007/s11016-020-00510-6.
de Neufville, Robert, 2020. The unthinkable is possible. California Magazine. Summer.
Baum, Seth D., 2020. Medium-term artificial intelligence and society. Information, vol. 11, no. 6, article 290, DOI 10.3390/info11060290.
Brown, Jared, 2020. The Defense Production Act and the failure to prepare for catastrophic incidents. War on the Rocks, 14 April.
Baum, Seth D., Robert de Neufville, Anthony M. Barrett, and Gary Ackerman, 2022. Lessons for artificial intelligence from other global risks. In Maurizio Tinnirello (editor), The Global Politics of Artificial Intelligence. Boca Raton: CRC Press, pages 103-131.
Baum, Seth D., 2019. Preparing for the unthinkable – Book review: End Times: A Brief Guide to the End of the World. Science, vol. 364, no. 6459 (September 20), page 1254, DOI 10.1126/science.aay4219
Baum, Seth D., 2019. The challenge of analyzing global catastrophic risks. Decision Analysis Today, vol. 38, no. 1 (July), pages 20-24.
Baum, Seth D., 2019. Risk-risk tradeoff analysis of nuclear explosives for asteroid deflection. Risk Analysis, vol. 39, no. 11 (November), pages 2427-2442, DOI 10.1111/risa.13339.
Baum, Seth D., 2019. Why catastrophes can change the course of humanity. BBC Future, 8 April.
Umbrello, Steven and Seth D. Baum, 2018. Evaluating future nanotechnology: The net societal impacts of atomically precise manufacturing. Futures, vol. 100 (June), pages 63-73, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2018.04.007.
Baum, Seth D., 2018. Reflections on the risk analysis of nuclear war. In B. John Garrick (editor), Proceedings of the Workshop on Quantifying Global Catastrophic Risks, Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, pages 19-50.
Baum, Seth D., 2018. Resilience to global catastrophe. In Benjamin D. Trump, Marie-Valentine Florin, and Igor Linkov (editors), IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience (Vol. 2): Domains of Resilience for Complex Interconnected Systems. Lausanne: EPFL International Risk Governance Center. Available at https://irgc.epfl.ch/risk-governance/projects-resilience.
Baum, Seth, 2018. The role of risk and decision analysis in global catastrophic risk reduction. GCRI Commentary 2018-1.
Baum, Seth D., 2018. Countering superintelligence misinformation. Information, vol. 9, no. 10 (September), article 244, DOI 10.3390/info9100244.
Baum, Seth D., 2018. Superintelligence skepticism as a political tool. Information, vol. 9, no. 9 (August), article 209, DOI 10.3390/info9090209.
Baum, Seth D., 2018. Uncertain human consequences in asteroid risk analysis and the global catastrophe threshold. Natural Hazards, vol. 94, no. 2 (November), pages 759-775, DOI 10.1007/s11069-018-3419-4.
Baum, Seth D., Stuart Armstrong, Timoteus Ekenstedt, Olle Häggström, Robin Hanson, Karin Kuhlemann, Matthijs M. Maas, James D. Miller, Markus Salmela, Anders Sandberg, Kaj Sotala, Phil Torres, Alexey Turchin, and Roman V. Yampolskiy, 2019. Long-term trajectories of human civilization. Foresight, vol. 21, no. 1, pages 53-83, DOI 10.1108/FS-04-2018-0037.
Baum, Seth D., 2018. Preventing an AI apocalypse. Project Syndicate, 16 May.
Baum, Seth D. and Anthony M. Barrett, 2018. A model for the impacts of nuclear war. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 18-2.
Baum, Seth D., Robert de Neufville, and Anthony M. Barrett, 2018. A model for the probability of nuclear war. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 18-1.
Baum, Seth D., Anthony M. Barrett, and Roman V. Yampolskiy, 2017. Modeling and interpreting expert disagreement about artificial superintelligence. Informatica, vol. 41, no. 4 (December), pages 419-427.
Baum, Seth D., 2017. A survey of artificial general intelligence projects for ethics, risk, and policy. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Working Paper 17-1.
Baum, Seth D., 2017. Assessing global catastrophic risk. In Helen Caldicott (editor), Sleepwalking to Armageddon: The Threat of Nuclear Annihilation. New York: New Press, pages 3-10.
Baum, Seth D., 2017. On the promotion of safe and socially beneficial artificial intelligence. AI & Society, vol. 32, no. 4 (November), pages 543-551, DOI 10.1007/s00146-016-0677-0.
White, Trevor N. and Seth D. Baum, 2017. Liability law for present and future robotics technology. In Patrick Lin, Keith Abney, and Ryan Jenkins (editors), Robot Ethics 2.0, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pages 66-79.
Baum, Seth D. and Anthony M. Barrett, 2017. Towards an integrated assessment of global catastrophic risk. In B.J. Garrick (editor), Proceedings of the First Colloquium on Catastrophic and Existential Risk, Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, pages 41-62.
Baum, Seth D., 2020. Social choice ethics in artificial intelligence. AI & Society, vol. 35, no. 1 (March), pages 165-176, DOI 10.1007/s00146-017-0760-1.
Barrett, Anthony M., 2017. Value of GCR information: Cost effectiveness-based approach for global catastrophic risk (GCR) reduction. Decision Analysis, vol. 14, no. 3 (September), pages 187-203, DOI 10.1287/deca.2017.0350.
Baum, Seth D., 2017. The social science of computerized brains – Book review: The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life When Robots Rule the Earth. Futures, vol. 90 (June), pages 61-63, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2017.03.005.
Baum, Seth D., 2018. Reconciliation between factions focused on near-term and long-term artificial intelligence. AI & Society, vol. 33, no. 4 (November), pages 565-572, DOI 10.1007/s00146-017-0734-3.
Baum, Seth, 2016. Space colonization and the meaning of life. Nautilus, December.
Baum, Seth, 2016. What Trump means for global catastrophic risk. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 9 December.
Baum, Seth, 2016. Should we let uploaded brains take over the world? Scientific American Blogs, 18 October.
Baum, Seth, 2016. Tackling near and far AI threats at once. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 6 October.
Baum, Seth D., 2016. The ethics of outer space: A consequentialist perspective. In James S.J. Schwartz and Tony Milligan (editors), The Ethics of Space Exploration. Berlin: Springer, pages 109-123.
Baum, Seth D., David C. Denkenberger, and Joshua M. Pearce, 2016. Alternative foods as a solution to global food supply catastrophes. Solutions, vol. 7, no. 4, pages 31-35.
Barrett, Anthony M. and Seth D. Baum, 2017. A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis. Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, vol. 29, no. 2, pages 397-414, DOI 10.1080/0952813X.2016.1186228.
Barrett, Anthony, 2016. False alarms, true dangers? Current and future risks of inadvertent U.S.-Russian nuclear war. RAND Corporation, document PE-191-TSF, DOI 10.7249/PE191.
Baum, Seth, 2015. Japan should restart more nuclear power plants. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 20 October.
Baum, Seth D., 2015. The far future argument for confronting catastrophic threats to humanity: Practical significance and alternatives. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 86-96, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.001.
Baum, Seth D., 2015. Confronting the threat of nuclear winter. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 69-79, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.004.
Baum, Seth D., David C. Denkenberger, and Jacob Haqq-Misra, 2015. Isolated refuges for surviving global catastrophes. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 45-56, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.009.
Baum, Seth D. and Bruce E. Tonn, 2015. Introduction: Confronting future catastrophic threats to humanity. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 1-3, DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.004.
Baum, Seth, 2015. Antinuclear Austria should lead the way on nuclear power. Scientific American Blogs, 29 September.
Baum, Seth D. and Bruce E. Tonn (editors), 2015. Confronting future catastrophic threats to humanity [special issue]. Futures, vol. 72 (September), pages 1-96.
Barrett, Anthony M. and Seth D. Baum, 2017. Risk analysis and risk management for the artificial superintelligence research and development process. In Victor Callaghan, James Miller, Roman Yampolskiy, and Stuart Armstrong (editors), The Technological Singularity: Managing the Journey. Berlin: Springer, pages 127-140.
Baum, Seth D., 2015. Winter-safe deterrence as a practical contribution to reducing nuclear winter risk: A reply. Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 2 (August), pages 387-397, DOI 10.1080/13523260.2015.1054101.
Baum, Seth, 2015. A picture's power to prevent. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 5 August.
Baum, Seth, 2015. Breaking down the risk of nuclear deterrence failure. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 27 July.
Baum, Seth and Trevor White, 2015. When robots kill. The Guardian Political Science blog, 23 June.
Baum, Seth, 2015. Should nuclear devices be used to stop asteroids? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 17 June.
Baum, Seth D., David C. Denkenberger, Joshua M. Pearce, Alan Robock, and Richelle Winkler, 2015. Resilience to global food supply catastrophes. Environment Systems and Decisions, vol. 35, no. 2 (June), pages 301-313, DOI 10.1007/s10669-015-9549-2.
Baum, Seth D., 2015. Risk and resilience for unknown, unquantifiable, systemic, and unlikely/catastrophic threats. Environment Systems and Decisions, vol. 35, no. 2 (June), pages 229-236, DOI 10.1007/s10669-015-9551-8.
Baum, Seth, 2015. Is stratospheric geoengineering worth the risk? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 5 June.
Baum, Seth, 2015. The risk of nuclear winter. Public Interest Reports, vol. 68, no. 2.
Baum, Seth, 2015. On winter-safe deterrence and interdisciplinary research. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2 April.
Baum, Seth, 2015. On winter-safe deterrence and biological weapons. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 20 March.
Baum, Seth, 2015. Getting smart about global catastrophes. Medium, 16 March.
Baum, Seth D., 2015. Winter-safe deterrence: The risk of nuclear winter and its challenge to deterrence. Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 1 (April), pages 123-148, DOI 10.1080/13523260.2015.1012346.
Baum, Seth, 2015. Deterrence, without nuclear winter. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 9 March.
Baum, Seth, 2015. What are the best ways to prevent global catastrophe? Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 26 February.
Baum, Seth, 2015. Stopping killer robots and other future threats. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 22 February.
Baum, Seth D. and Anthony M. Barrett, 2018. Global catastrophes: The most extreme risks. In Vicki Bier (editor), Risk in Extreme Environments: Preparing, Avoiding, Mitigating, and Managing. New York: Routledge, pages 174-184.
Baum, Seth, 2015. Support the Austria Pledge. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 27 January.
Baum, Seth D., 2014. Film review: Snowpiercer. Journal of Sustainability Education, vol. 7, December issue (online).
Baum, Seth D., 2014. The great downside dilemma for risky emerging technologies. Physica Scripta, vol. 89, no. 12 (December), article 128004, DOI 10.1088/0031-8949/89/12/128004.
Baum, Seth, 2014. Nuclear war, the black swan we can never see. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 21 November.
Baum, Seth, 2014. The lesson of Lake Toba. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 21 October.
Baum, Seth, 2014. Planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 21 October.
Baum, Seth D., 2014. Film review: Transcendence. Journal of Evolution and Technology, vol. 24, no. 2 (September), pages 79-84.
Baum, Seth D. and Itsuki C. Handoh, 2014. Integrating the planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk paradigms. Ecological Economics, vol. 107 (November), pages 13-21, DOI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.024.
Baum, Seth D., 2014. Book review: Only One Chance: How Environmental Pollution Impairs Brain Development – and How to Protect the Brains of the Next Generation. Environmental Science & Policy, vol. 42 (October), pages 197-199, DOI 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.07.001.
Baum, Seth, 2014. Best and worst case scenarios for Ukraine crisis: World peace and nuclear war. Huffington Post, 7 March.
de Neufville, Robert, 2014. One cannot live in the cradle forever. FQXi Essay Contest, Spring.
de Neufville, Robert, 2014. What's at stake for the world in Ukraine. Anthropocene blog, 2 March.
Baum, Seth, 2013. Our Final Invention: Is AI the defining issue for humanity? Scientific American Blogs, 11 October.
Baum, Seth, 2013. Taming the gigaton gorilla: Using Syria diplomacy to help avoid U.S.-Russia nuclear war. The Huffington Post, 15 September.
de Neufville, Robert, 2013. The Sentinel Mission, Anthropocene blog, 17 August.
Baum, Seth and Grant Wilson, 2013. The ethics of global catastrophic risk from dual-use bioengineering. Ethics in Biology, Engineering and Medicine, vol. 4, no. 1, pages 59-72, DOI 10.1615/EthicsBiologyEngMed.2013007629.
Baum, Seth, 2013. Making the universe a better place. Current Exchange/Technophilic Magazine, Spring, pages 22-23.
de Neufville, Robert, 2013. The end of scarcity. Anthropocene blog, 11 June.
de Neufville, Robert, 2013. The sixth extinction – Book review: Scatter, Adapt, and Remember. Anthropocene blog, 27 May.
Wilson, Grant S., 2014. Deepwater horizon and the law of the sea: Was the cure worse than the disease? Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review, vol. 41, no. 1, pages 63-131.
Maher, Timothy M. Jr. and Seth D. Baum, 2013. Adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. Sustainability, vol. 5, no. 4 (April), pages 1461-1479, DOI 10.3390/su5041461.
Baum, Seth and Grant Wilson, 2013. How to create an international treaty for emerging technologies. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 21 February.
Haqq-Misra, Jacob, Michael W. Busch, Sanjoy M. Som, and Seth D. Baum, 2013. The benefits and harm of transmitting into space. Space Policy, vol. 29, no. 1 (February), pages 40-48, DOI 10.1016/j.spacepol.2012.11.006.
Baum, Seth, 2013. When global catastrophes collide: The climate engineering double catastrophe. Scientific American Blogs, 6 February.
Baum, Seth, 2013. Seven reasons for integrated emerging technologies governance. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 23 January.
de Neufville, Robert, 2013. Have we reached the limits to growth? Anthropocene blog, 14 January.
Barrett, Anthony M., Seth D. Baum, and Kelly R. Hostetler, 2013. Analyzing and reducing the risks of inadvertent nuclear war between the United States and Russia. Science and Global Security, vol. 21, no. 2, pages 106-133, DOI 10.1080/08929882.2013.798984.
Baum, Seth D., Timothy M. Maher, Jr., and Jacob Haqq-Misra, 2013. Double catastrophe: Intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse. Environment Systems and Decisions, vol. 33, no. 1 (March), pages 168-180, DOI 10.1007/s10669-012-9429-y.
Wilson, Grant, 2012. Emerging technologies: Should they be internationally regulated? Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, 21 December.
Baum, Seth D., 2013. Teaching astrobiology in a sustainability course. Journal of Sustainability Education, February issue.
Wilson, Grant S., 2013. Minimizing global catastrophic and existential risks from emerging technologies through international law. Virginia Environmental Law Journal, vol. 31, no. 2, pages 307-364.
Baum, Seth, 2012. Hurricane Sandy hints at the perils of global catastrophe. Scientific American Blogs, 6 November.
Baum, Seth, 2012. Anticipating catastrophe. FutureChallenges, 26 September.
Baum, Seth, 2012. Earth Day, conspiracy and world government. FutureChallenges, 23 April.
Baum, Seth, 2012. Global disaster recovery. FutureChallenges, 17 April.