Exactly how the COVID-19 pandemic began remains a topic of considerable scientific and political debate. However, the opinions expressed in the debate have thus far come from an ad hoc mix of experts and commentators who have spoken up. Therefore, a research team led by the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI) and Nemesys Insights conducted a rigorous survey of global expert opinion. The anonymous survey included 168 virologists, infectious disease epidemiologists, and other scientists from 47 countries in a geographic sample of both developed and developing countries. This is the first-ever systematic study of expert opinion on the origin of COVID-19.
While expert opinion does not necessarily match the underlying truth, carefully obtained expert opinion can indicate the current state-of-the-art thinking on a topic and the extent of consensus across experts. The survey results correspond to the beliefs expressed by the 168 experts who participated in the study.
The survey is summarized in a main report and detailed in a methodological and analytical annex.
Main findings from the survey include:
• The study’s experts overall stated that the COVID-19 pandemic most likely originated via a natural zoonotic event, defined as an event in which a non-human animal infected a human, and in which the infection did not occur in the course of any form of virological or biomedical research. The experts generally gave a lower probability for origin via a research-related accident, but most experts indicated some chance of origin via accident and about one fifth of the experts stated that an accident was the more likely origin. These beliefs were similar across experts from different geographic and academic backgrounds.
• The experts mostly expressed the view that more research on COVID-19’s origin could be of value. About half of the experts stated that major gaps still remain in the understanding COVID-19’s origin, and most of the other experts also stated that some research is still needed. About 40% of experts stated that clarity on COVID-19 origins would provide a better understanding of the potential origins of future pandemics. Given clarity on COVID-19’s origin, experts also proposed a variety of governance changes for addressing future pandemics, including measures to prevent initial human infection, measures to prevent initial infection from becoming pandemic, and measures to mitigate the harm once the pandemic occurs.
• The vast majority of the experts express the belief that a natural zoonotic event will likely be the origin of the next pandemic.
• The experts also provided a set of clear recommendations for preventing, preparing for and responding to future pandemics, which generally align with many previous studies.
“The COVID-19 pandemic was a major tragedy, but unfortunately, future pandemics could be even worse,” said Seth Baum, Executive Director of GCRI. “By studying COVID-19, including its origin, we can better reduce the risk of future pandemics.”
The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank studying the risk of major global threats such as pandemics, climate change, and nuclear war. GCRI aims to develop highly effective solutions for reducing the risk by leveraging both the best available scholarship and the demands of real-world decision-making.
Nemesys Insights, LLC is a strategic analysis and advisory company that applies innovative decision tools and technologies to answer complex strategic questions. Nemesys Insights implemented the expert survey under guidance from GCRI.
For more information about this study, please contact Seth Baum, PhD, GCRI Executive Director, at seth [at] gcrinstitute.org.
Media Coverage: The study is featured in a Science article Virologists and epidemiologists back natural origin for COVID-19, survey suggests and is also covered in articles in Deutsche Welle and The Week.
Academic citation:
Gary Ackerman, Brandon Behlendorf, Seth Baum, Hayley Peterson, Anna Wetzel, and John Halstead, 2024. The origin and implications of the COVID-19 pandemic: An expert survey. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Technical Report 24-1.
Download the Main Report PDF • Download the Methodological and Analytical Annex PDF
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