The quantification of global catastrophic risks in terms of their probabilities and severities is difficult, but it is important for many decisions. Likewise, the fields of risk and decision analysis have much to offer the study of global catastrophic risk. This short paper summarizes the challenge of quantitatively analyzing global catastrophic risks. The paper was written by invitation from the Decision Analysis Society for their publication Decision Analysis Today.
As the paper explains, the quantification of global catastrophic risks is not always necessary. Sometimes, clear decisions can be made without it. The decision to turn the lights off when we leave the room is one example. Quantification can be more important when there are tradeoffs to be evaluated or scarce resources to be allocated. The paper describes three examples: nuclear disarmament, nuclear power, and the launch of advanced AI.
Another challenge is institutional. Many risk and decision analyses are commissioned by decision-makers who value this input. In contrast, analysis of global catastrophic risk is often motivated by an intrinsic concern for the risk. As a consequence, it can lack a built-in audience. The paper describes two approaches to handling this situation: promoting intrinsic concern for global catastrophic risk and seeking synergies between global catastrophic risk and whatever issues decision-makers care about.
The Decision Analysis Society is one of the leading academic and professional societies for risk and decision analysis, and it is an honor to have the opportunity to discuss global catastrophic risk with its membership. (Another leading society is the Society for Risk Analysis, which GCRI is also active in.)
Academic citation:
Baum, Seth D., 2019. The challenge of analyzing global catastrophic risks. Decision Analysis Today, vol. 38, no. 1 (July), pages 20-24.
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Image credit: Adrian Scottow
