Outer Space

Featured GCRI Publications on Outer Space

Full List of GCRI Publications on Outer Space

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Introduction

Featured Publications

Full List of Publications

An Introduction to Outer Space

Outer space offers perspective. When viewing Earth from outer space, we are reminded of how small we are, but also how special we are. In the vast seas of the universe, Earth is an infinitesimal speck, but it is the only place we know to have life and intelligent civilization. We may be small, but we are doing something big. Perhaps someday Earth-life may even expand beyond our home planet across the cosmos, bringing life to an otherwise vast expanse of barren lands.

Global catastrophe threatens all of that. A global catastrophe could destroy civilization on Earth, preventing it from going on to expand across the cosmos. It could be the difference between success and failure at astronomical scales. Indeed, this is one way to define global catastrophe, as some GCRI research has done. From this perspective, this extreme big-picture perspective, reducing global catastrophic risk is of paramount importance to our era of civilization.

This raises the question of which catastrophes threaten the fate of Earth-life in the universe. The answer is uncertain. Even human extinction may not make a difference in the long-run if some other Earth species evolves the capacity for spacefaring civilization. On the other hand, a catastrophe that permanently harms human civilization without causing extinction could prevent eventual space expansion. If there is one conclusion we can reach with confidence, it is that more severe catastrophes are more likely to harm the long-term trajectory of Earth-life in the universe. Efforts to reduce the risk may proceed accordingly.

Outer space is itself a source of threats to human civilization. These include collision with near-Earth objects (asteroids, comets, and meteoroids), space weather (including solar flares and coronoal mass ejections), and stellar explosions (including supernovae and gamma-ray bursts). These risks vary widely in terms of their probability, their severity, and the opportunities for risk reduction. They also offer insights for the broader study of global catastrophic risk. For example, asteroid risk is arguably the most well-understood global catastrophic risk, but as GCRI research has shown, it still has major uncertainties; if asteroid risk remains deeply uncertain, then so too do other global catastrophic risks.

The same big-picture perspective that highlights the importance of global catastrophic risk also points to a more positive question: If humanity manages to avoid global catastrophe and becomes capable of expanding into outer space, how should we proceed? More ambitiously: Given the opportunity to turn the universe into something different, what should we do with it? These questions may seem fanciful, but in the face of rapid technological change, we may need to take them seriously. Answering them requires careful study of the ethics of outer space.

Despite the astronomical stakes, it is important not to get too carried away by outer space issues. It is also important to stay down to Earth, to stay focused on the practical, everyday decisions that we all face. A core challenge for work on global catastrophic risk, and indeed for human civilization as a whole, is to connect the dots between our everyday affairs and our cosmic potential. It is think global, act local, but for the universe instead of the planet. We should strive to successfully manage our everyday affairs while positioning our civilization for astronomical success.

Image credits: Earthrise: NASA; asteroid: NASA/JPL; space colony: NASA

Featured GCRI Publications on Outer Space

Risk-Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

If an asteroid is found to be on collision course with Earth, it may be possible to deflect it away using nuclear explosives. This paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, analyzes the potential tradeoff between reducing the risk of asteroid collision and increasing the risk of nuclear war or other violent conflict.

The Ethics of Outer Space: A Consequentialist Perspective

Consequentialist ethics argues that people should act so as to bring about good consequences. This paper, published in the edited collection The Ethics of Space Exploration, argues that the scale and character of outer space make it important for consequentialist ethics, for reasons related to global catastrophic risk.

The Benefits and Harm of Transmitting into Space

Radio transmissions on Earth propagate into space. This paper, published in the journal Space Policy, evaluates radio transmissions of varying signal intensities in terms of their potential to be observed by extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI). ETI could bring large benefits or catastrophic harms to humanity, though there are great uncertainties.

Full List of GCRI Publications on Outer Space