This past fall, GCRI conducted a stretch of media outreach regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It focused on the risk of the invasion escalating to nuclear war. It drew on GCRI’s research on nuclear war, especially the publication A model for the probability of nuclear war. This post provides a summary of this outreach work.
The work began with a series of posts by Seth Baum on Twitter, mainly in the form of extended threads. The posts are compiled in a thread of threads. The threads address:
* the probability of escalation to nuclear war: the underlying fundamentals
* the probability of escalation to nuclear war: quantitative estimates
* the value of international condemnation: for reducing the probability of escalation to nuclear war
* a variety of carrots and sticks: for reducing the probability of escalation to nuclear war
* the probability of escalation to nuclear war: an ongoing debate—this thread received the most attention
* a new round of Russian missile attacks: implications for nuclear war risk
* the impacts of nuclear war: a survey of impacts, their severities, and the accompanying uncertainty
* the harms that have already occurred: what they are and why they matter
* the long-term prospect of peace with Russia: why it matters and how to get there
* the possibility of a radiological “dirty bomb” attack: why it is not a cause for panic
As the Twitter threads were shared, a number of journalists and other writers took an interest, with some contacting Baum for interviews. This resulted in coverage as follows:
* ABC Radio National (Australia)
* Brookings
* Miami Herald, distributed by McClatchey to 28 other newspapers, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17,18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28
* Newsweek
* Russia Matters (Harvard Belfer Center)
* Sky News Tonight (UK), a live television interview with no online archive
* Times Radio (UK) (also here)
Overall, this round of media engagement was a success. It helped to improve understanding of nuclear war risk and to advance ideas for how to reduce the risk. It also demonstrated public and media interest in GCRI’s perspectives on nuclear war risk. For all media inquiries please contact Seth Baum, seth [at] gcrinstitute.org.