Winter-Safe Deterrence as a Practical Contribution to Reducing Nuclear Winter Risk: A Reply

by

25 August 2015

Baum, Seth D., 2015. Winter-safe deterrence as a practical contribution to reducing nuclear winter risk: A reply. Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 2 (August), pages 387-397, DOI 10.1080/13523260.2015.1054101.

Download Preprint PDF

Abstract:

In a recent issue of this journal, I published an article proposing the concept of winter-safe deterrence. The article defined winter-safe deterrence as “military force capable of meeting the deterrence goals of today’s nuclear weapon states without risking catastrophic nuclear winter”. The article and a summary version published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists have since stimulated extensive discussion in social media, the Bulletin, and now a symposium in this journal. The discussion has been productive for refining certain aspects of winter-safe deterrence and getting an initial sense of how the concept may be received. This is exactly what should happen for a new idea with significant policy implications. As a humble author, I welcome the discussion, including the points of criticism. I likewise thank the participants in this symposium for their contributions, as well as the many others who have commented elsewhere on winter-safe deterrence. In this essay, I reply to the contributions to this symposium as part of a broader discussion of winter-safe deterrence and the discussion it has sparked.

Academic citation:
Seth D. Baum, 2015. Winter-safe deterrence as a practical contribution to reducing nuclear winter risk: A reply. Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 36, no. 2 (August), pages 387-397, DOI 10.1080/13523260.2015.1054101.

Download Preprint PDFView in Contemporary Security Policy

Image credit: United States Office of War Information


This blog post was published on 28 July 2020 as part of a website overhaul and backdated to reflect the time of the publication of the work referenced here.

Related Topics:

Recent Publications from GCRI

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Recent Publications from GCRI

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Download PDF Preprint Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? Warming temperatures are already causing a variety harms around the world, some quite severe, and they project to worsen as temperatures increase. However, despite the massive body of research on...

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Download PDF Preprint Diversity is an important ethical concept. It’s also relevant to global catastrophic risk in at least two ways: the risk of catastrophic biodiversity loss and the need for diversity among people working on global catastrophic risk. It’s...

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Manipulating Aggregate Societal Values to Bias AI Social Choice Ethics

Manipulating Aggregate Societal Values to Bias AI Social Choice Ethics

Recent Publications from GCRI

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Download PDF Preprint Is climate change a global catastrophic risk? Warming temperatures are already causing a variety harms around the world, some quite severe, and they project to worsen as temperatures increase. However, despite the massive body of research on...

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Download PDF Preprint Diversity is an important ethical concept. It’s also relevant to global catastrophic risk in at least two ways: the risk of catastrophic biodiversity loss and the need for diversity among people working on global catastrophic risk. It’s...

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Global Catastrophic Risk

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

Assessing the Risk of Takeover Catastrophe from Large Language Models

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

On the Intrinsic Value of Diversity

Manipulating Aggregate Societal Values to Bias AI Social Choice Ethics

Manipulating Aggregate Societal Values to Bias AI Social Choice Ethics